IS THIS TIME REALLY DIFFERENT?

After the most recent price action:

• The vast majority of people in the magic internet money market have flipped bearish.

• Market sentiment is worse than what I saw during the last bear market (Luna & FTX crashes).

• The Fear & Greed Index is at levels comparable to the darkest days of the last crypto winter.

Let’s be real—this is not how a top looks.

The real top won’t feel like a top.

By then, everyone around you will be screaming:

• “Higher”

• “Super cycle”

• “Bitcoin to $1M”

• “New paradigm”

• “We’ll never see a bear market again”

You don’t believe me?

Go back and study history.

Now, what I see on the Bitcoin chart right now looks eerily similar to what happened in early August.

Remember that massive shakeout?

It was “over” back then too.

Then, a couple of months later, Bitcoin started its parabolic impulse toward $100K+.

I believe history will rhyme once again—look at the projection I made on the chart.

Always zoom out.

Until proven otherwise, this is nothing but a normal and healthy bull-market retracement.

Bitcoin always had multiple strong corrections on its way to the cycle top.

Why this time has to be different?

All I see right now is a sweep of the most recent lows and “kiss” of the 21W SMA after sometime away from it.

Parabolic advance, reset, tap of the 21W SMA, run again — this has been a recurring pattern in Bitcoin’s history.

To wrap this up:

If we put everything together:

• TA

• Macro

• “Adoption”

• Market sentiment

  Etc.

Being bearish right now doesn’t make much sense to me.

I know the most recent price action has been messing with your brains, but don’t let it cloud your judgement.

Now eyes on the weekly and monthly closures — those will bring us essential data that we’ll use to re-asses our market bias.

Eyes on the prize.

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